Experts Warn of Potential Silent COVID Surge Over Holidays
As Americans prepare for holiday gatherings, public health experts are cautioning about the potential for a “silent” COVID-19 surge. Experts are calling it “silent” because this holiday surge follows a long period of low COVID-19 activity this fall, so many are unaware that COVID levels have risen sharply over the past two weeks of December, according to the most recent wastewater data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Unlike earlier waves marked by well-publicized steep spikes in cases, this seasonal surge could occur more subtly, fueled by underreporting, waning immunity, and the convergence of multiple respiratory viruses.
“There’s a good chance that a lot of people are going to get sick in the next couple of weeks and be unaware of it. Most people are not tracking CDC data, and so their only way of knowing whether we’re in a wave is if they’ve gotten sick,” Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., associate professor at Tulane University School of Medicine and public health expert on tracking COVID-19 trends, told TODAY.com.
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Why Are Experts Concerned?
- Underreported Cases:
- The widespread use of rapid COVID-19 tests has shifted many cases from official statistics to personal records. The CDC notes that at-home testing results often go unreported, creating blind spots in case tracking.
- Wastewater surveillance suggests an uptick in SARS-CoV-2 viral loads across several U.S. cities, a key indicator of rising community transmission.
- Holiday Gatherings and Travel:
- According to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), holiday travel is projected to reach pre-pandemic levels, increasing close-contact interactions in airports, planes, and homes.
- Family gatherings often mix age groups, including vulnerable populations like older adults and young children.
- Immunity Gaps:
- Immunity from earlier infections and vaccinations may be waning, especially among individuals who have not received the latest COVID-19 booster. The CDC reports that booster uptake remains low, with only 30% of eligible individuals receiving updated doses.
- Converging Respiratory Viruses:
- COVID-19 is expected to coincide with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and norovirus, amplifying the strain on healthcare systems already dealing with a challenging respiratory season.
How to Prepare for a Silent Surge
Experts emphasize proactive measures to mitigate risks and protect yourself and loved ones during the holidays:
- Test Regularly:
- Use rapid COVID-19 tests before attending gatherings, especially if you have symptoms or recent exposure to COVID-19.
- Consider testing both before and after travel to reduce the risk of spreading the virus.
- Stay Up to Date on Vaccinations:
- Get the updated COVID-19 booster, which targets current variants such as XBB.1.5.
- Combine COVID-19 vaccination with flu shots to protect against multiple viruses.
- Practice Good Hygiene:
- Wash hands frequently and use hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol.
- Disinfect high-touch surfaces, especially in shared spaces.
- Improve Indoor Air Quality:
- Use HEPA filters or open windows to enhance ventilation during indoor gatherings.
- Consider wearing a mask in crowded or poorly ventilated areas, particularly if you’re immunocompromised or live with someone at high risk.
- Stay Home if Sick:
- Even mild symptoms could indicate a COVID-19 infection. Isolate and test promptly to protect others.
Monitoring Trends and Staying Informed
Staying informed about local COVID-19 trends is essential for navigating the holiday season. Reliable data sources include:
- The CDC’s COVID Data Tracker for national and local statistics.
- State and local health department dashboards for region-specific updates.
- Wastewater surveillance reports for early indications of rising transmission rates.
While the potential for a silent COVID-19 surge may not generate the headlines of earlier pandemic waves, its impact could still be significant. By combining vaccination, testing, and preventive practices, Americans can enjoy safer holiday celebrations while minimizing the risk of spreading SARS-CoV-2. Make rapid COVID-19 testing a part of your holiday routine to protect yourself and your loved ones during this critical season.
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